A statement issued on Saturday by the group’s Practice Head in Africa, Philippe de Pontet, noted that although it had earlier expected President Goodluck Jonathan to narrowly win the presidential election, a number of factors had since changed thus swinging the pendulum towards the direction of Buhari.
Eurasia, which analysed the electoral chances of the two leading candidates in the March 28 poll, said, “We change our election forecast from a narrow win for incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to a victory for opposition leader, Muhamadu Buhari (60% probability). The electoral map is tilting towards Buhari in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt, while high turnout in his core northern base will offset Jonathan’s
advantage in the Niger Delta.
implementation challenges. Buhari edges ahead. We had long viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favorite to win reelection, but a number of factors now lead us to believe the edge has swung in Buhari’s favor.”
It said, “our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign. Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission.
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